Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Climate Models Go Cold

Photo is from "The Sinking of the Titanic and Great Sea Disasters" by Logan Marshall (1912). Enlarge to read the faint caption "Theory" written on the ship. 
Scientist David Evans wrote a brief piece in the Financial Post called Climate Models Go Cold.*  He writes as a scientist formerly on the "gravy train,' making his point-of-view all the more credible. Evans understands all the data-even the ones not being talked about.

I'm reminded of the T.H. Huxley quote:
The great tragedy of science, the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact.

Some time ago, I left the following comment on the Althouse blog.  Those comments now seem to have disappeared down a memory-hole, but I still stand by what I said then:
chickenlittle said...

Nobelist Steven Chu, head of the DOE and Obama's top science guru, is all on board the CO2 is evil train. Link.

There is clearly an enormous investment in brainpower behind the notion that CO2 causes warming.

Here is how I distill the problem(s) confronting us:

(1) How, if incorrect about CO2, could the scientific consensus be so wrong?
  (a) Is the notion CO2 causes warming now too big to fail?
  (b) Can the credibility of American (and world) science recover if wrong?

(2) If they are right about CO2 causing warming, what would it take to convince the American people that they are correct?
  (a) Clearly something has gone wrong with the PR-people are not convinced.
  (b) The present administration appears to say: fuck 'em- they (the people) don't believe us? we're gonna force them. The possible techniques available to enforce compliance are downright un-American.

(3) What really bothers me as a sceptic of the CO2 causes warming is that if the Copenhagen treaty is ratified and enforced, and warming does not occur, credit will be taken regardless of the true cause. To me this is a heads I win tails you lose proposition for the CO2 causes warming folks. But more insidiously, it is the exact mechanism by which Science could ascend to the status of a quasi-religion: give the people "miracle, mystery and authority" and they will follow.

Sorry in advance for the longish post.

10/22/09 8:07 PM
*Thanks to @SissyWillis for retweeting the link to Evan's article on Twitter.

1 comment:

  1. I'm going to BBQ a steak now to try and add my bit to greenhouse gas in the attempt to stave off global cooling.